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November, 2004 | SAGE Publications, Inc

Sales Forecasting Management

A Demand Management Approach

Second Edition
John Thomas Mentzer, Jr. - University of Tennessee, Knoxville, USA
Mark A. Moon - University of Tennessee-Knoxville, Tennessee
368 pages | November, 2004 | SAGE Publications, Inc
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Incorporating 25 years of sales forecasting management research with more than 400 companies, Sales Forecasting Management, Second Edition is the first text to truly integrate the theory and practice of sales forecasting management. This research includes the personal experiences of John T. Mentzer and Mark A. Moon in advising companies how to improve their sales forecasting management practices. Their program of research includes two major surveys of companies' sales forecasting practices, a two-year, in-depth study of sales forecasting management practices of 20 major companies, and an ongoing study of how to apply the findings from the two-year study to conducting sales forecasting audits of additional companies. The book provides comprehensive coverage of the techniques and applications of sales forecasting analysis, combined with a managerial focus to give managers and users of the sales forecasting function a clear understanding of the forecasting needs of all business functions.  

New to This Edition:   
  • The author's well-regarded Multicaster software system demo, previously available on cassette, has been updated and is now available for download from the authors' Web site www.jtmassociates.com
  • New insights on the critical area of qualitative forecasting are presented
  • The results of additional surveys done since the publication of the first edition have been added
  • The discussion of the four dimensions of forecasting management has been significantly enhanced
  • Significant reorganization and updating has been done to strengthen and improve the material for the second edition.
Sales Forecasting Management is an ideal text for graduate courses in sales forecasting management. Practitioners in marketing, sales, finance/accounting, production/purchasing, and logistics will also find this easy-to-understand volume essential.

PREFACE

INTRODUCTION
A DEMAND MANAGEMENT APPROACH TO SALES FORECASTING
SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT
FORECASTS VERSUS PLANS VERSUS TARGETS
THE ROLE OF SALES FORECASTING IN SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING (S&OP)
WHY IS A SALES FORECAST NEEDED?
SUMMARY: ORGANIZATIONAL SALES FORECASTING NEEDS
THE TOOLS OF SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT
SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT QUESTIONS
SALES FORECASTING AND PLANNING: AN ITERATIVE PROCESS
FUNCTIONAL SILOS
OVERVIEW OF THIS BOOK OVERVIEW OF THIS BOOK

INTRODUCTION
SALES FORECASTING ACCURACY
SALES FORECOSTING COSTS
CUSTOMER SATISFACTION
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER--A FORECASTING ROI DECISION
CONCLUSIONS

INTRODUCTION
FIXED-MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES
FIXED MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES SUMMARY
OPEN-MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES
SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION
HOW REGRESSION ANALYSIS WORKS
THE PROCESS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS FOR FORECASTING
FURTHER EVALUATION OF CANDIDATE MODELS
MODEL VALIDATION
AN EXAMPLE
CONCLUSION
NOTES

INTRODUCTION
QUALITATIVE FORECASTING: ADVANTAGES AND PROBLEMS
SUMMARY: QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUE ADVANTAGES AND PROBLEMS
QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUES AND TOOLS
MARKET RESEARCH TOOLS FOR QUALITATIVE FORECASTING
DECISION ANALYSIS TOOLS FOR QUALITATIVE FORECASTING
SUMMARY
APPENDIX

INTRODUCTION
THE SALES FORECASTING SYSTEM AS A COMMUNICATION VEHICLE
MULTICASTER
SALES FORECASTING SYSTEMS: SUMMARY
APPENDIX

INTRODUCTION
STUDIES PRIOR TO PHASE 1
PHASE 2 METHODOLOGY
FINDINGS COMPARING PHASE 1 TO PHASE 2
CONCLUSIONS FROM COMPARING PHASE 1 AND PHASE 2
SALES FORECASTING SYSTEMS
SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT
FORECASTING IN CONSUMER VERSUS INDUSTRIAL MARKETS
CONCLUSIONS: INDUSTRIAL VERSUS CONSUMER FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS FROM PHASE 2

INTRODUCTION
FUNCTIONAL INTEGRATION
APPROACH
SYSTEMS

CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX: SALES FORECASTING AUDIT PROTOCOL

INTRODUCTION
THE ROLE OF AUDITING
MANAGEMENT RESPONSE TO AUDITS
CONCLUSIONS

INTRODUCTION
THE ROLE OF THE SALES FORECASTING CHAMPION
THE SEVEN KEYS TO BETTER FORECASTING
WHY THE CEO SHOULD CARE
THE CEO SHOULD CARE AT TELLABS
CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
INDEX
  • To prepare sales forecasting analysts to understand the uses of their sales forecasts in their companies.
  • To provide sales forecasting managers with a technical foundation in the techniques, approaches, and systems used to develop sales forecasts.
  • To provide managers of functions that use the sales forecast with an understanding of how the forecasts are developed and the limitations of these forecasts.
  • To provide managers of functions that contribute information to sales forecasts with an understanding of the critical role those forecasts play, and how their participation in that process can be improved.
  • To provide undergraduate and graduate business students with an appreciation of all four previous points.
  • To expose all these groups to the "state of the art" in sales forecasting today, based upon experience gathered by the authors with over 400 companies.
  • To give all these groups a chance to apply what they have learned to their own data with a "state of the art" sales forecasting system designed to provide relevant sales forecasts to all the user functions in a variety of company sizes and types.